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Math: Making Decisions with Probability

Activity Idea: Students should use probability to make a real-life decision by weighing the possible outcomes. Sample questions students could answer are: which auto insurance plan should I choose, what are my chances of winning the lottery, etc. 
 
Tip: Students should use the internet to research input data for the question they want to answer - for example, the real price of auto insurance plans in their state. After solving the problem, they should take a photo of their solution and then use the voice recorder tool or text tool to explain what decision they would make based on this data, and how they reached that conclusion. 
 
Supports Common Core: CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSS.MD.B.5: Weigh the possible outcomes of a decision by assigning probabilities to payoff values and finding expected values. CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSS.MD.B.5.A: Find the expected payoff for a game of chance. For example, find the expected winnings from a state lottery ticket or a game at a fast-food restaurant. CCSS.MATH.CONTENT.HSS.MD.B.5.B: Evaluate and compare strategies on the basis of expected values. For example, compare a high-deductible versus a low-deductible automobile insurance policy using various, but reasonable, chances of having a minor or a major accident.

 

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